Market Analysis & Pricing Strategy
Prepared for Al & Kim Miller
Headwaters · Dripping Springs, Texas 78620
Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury
September 2026
The Position
We walked this home with you when it was still in frame. You chose the greenbelt homesite, the plan changes, and $146,693 in selections that most Headwaters homes simply do not have.
Today that home enters a market with two distinct flanks:
- Resale stock from Headwaters' earlier phases, largely built 2017–2021 to standard builder specification
- Brand-new builder inventory — David Weekley, Coventry and Toll Brothers are actively selling on Iron Willow and Sage Thrasher, with incentives
657 Moonlit Stream Pass sits between them: newer and more finished than the resale homes, ready today where the new homes are not, and priced well below either new single-story alternative on the market.
The anchor is on your own street. 516 Moonlit Stream Pass — a 2022 single-story with over $150,000 in upgrades — closed in July at $718,000. It also launched at $799,000 and needed 75 days and two reductions to get there. Both halves of that story shape our recommendation.
Property Snapshot
What Sets This Home Apart
The homesite. A $66,000 lot premium was paid for this greenbelt position. Metal view fencing at the rear, open space beyond, and no rear neighbors.
The selections — $146,693, fully documented:
Finishes — $71,353
Wood flooring, upgraded countertops, cabinetry, wall and backsplash tile, floor tile and carpet
Architecture — $30,765
12' × 8' sliding glass wall to covered outdoor living, flex room in place of tandem garage, fourth bedroom with its own bath, study, mud-set owner's shower
Fireplace — $12,015
42" fireplace, floor-to-ceiling Austin White limestone surround, solid Douglas fir mantel
Kitchen
Café appliance package, MotionSense faucet, pendant and under-cabinet lighting
Owner's Bath
Frameless glass shower, Doux brushed nickel suite, raised shower heads
Millwork & Systems
6" baseboards, 4" casings, Madison shaker doors, 8' doors, mahogany entry door, full gutters, interior sound insulation, water softener pre-plumb, gas stub at patio, audio and camera pre-wire
A buyer cannot order this home from a builder today without a lot premium, a design-center session and a months-long wait.
The Headwaters Market
Twelve months ending August 2026, Headwaters (Dripping Springs):
Story count matters. Across resale closings in the last 12 months, single-story homes sold at a median $243/SF versus $220/SF for two-story homes. Buyers pay a clear premium for true one-level living — this home's primary advantage.
Closed Comparable Sales — Single-Story Resale
Headwaters, closed September 2025 – September 2026, 2,400+ SF
Every comparable above has a three-car garage. This home has two, with the third bay converted to a flex room — a trade we account for in the value analysis.
Active and Pending Competition
Resale — the homes a buyer will tour alongside yours
New construction — single-story
Where this home sits on both axes. Our standard is top 25% on presentation and bottom 25% on price against the actives. On presentation, this is the newest, most completely optioned single-story resale available — top quartile is achievable with the make-ready below. On price, the lowest resale actives are either 1.5-story plans with upstairs rooms or 2018–2019 construction, and three of them have been on the market 98 to 157 days. We will not chase them to the bottom of that list. We will price clearly beneath every comparable single-story that has closed at this age and finish level — and more than $120,000 below the only new single-story alternative.
Competing with New Construction
The buyer for this home is also touring the model homes. Fifteen new homes are actively for sale in Headwaters, six more are pending, and six of the actives show 2027 completion dates.
What new single-story homes of this size actually closed for
New single-story homes in Headwaters closed at a median 92.3% of launch in 152 days. Builders are negotiating hard, and buyers know it.
Side by side
The real cost of building this home today. Your own contract shows it: $637,990 base price, a $66,000 lot premium and $146,693 in options — $850,683 before incentives. A buyer who wants this plan, this homesite and these finishes new cannot get them for $659,000.
Meeting the builders on their own terms. Builder sales offices lead with rate buydowns and closing-cost incentives. Rather than cutting price, we will be prepared to offer a targeted buyer credit in negotiation — a tool that competes directly with builder financing while protecting your list price and the value of every comparable that follows.
Value Analysis
Adjustment grid — 516 Moonlit Stream Pass (same street, same vintage, single-story, comparable upgrade level)
Supporting comparables, adjusted to the subject
The Launch-Price Pattern
Headwaters resale closings, last 12 months, measured against original list price:
Price Penalty
Lost by launching high vs. pricing right
Time Penalty
Extra days on market when launched too high
Dollar Cost
Estimated loss on a home in this price range
The market does not reward an ambitious list price with a higher sale. It rewards a correct one with a faster, stronger sale.
Every Resale That Launched at $685,000 or Above
Headwaters resale homes under 3,200 SF, last 12 months
Three Pricing Scenarios
Read the modeled-close row first.
The Test tier models to the lowest outcome and the longest wait. If you prefer to start there, we would pair it with a written agreement to adjust to $659,000 on day 21 — decided now, not negotiated under pressure later.
Our Recommendation
List at $659,000
Priced beneath the market anchor
$6,000 beneath indicated value, and beneath the $660,000 closing at 192 Crimson Sky — an older home with standard finishes
A clear value advantage
$59,000 below where 516 Moonlit Stream Pass closed, and more than $120,000 below the only new single-story on the market
In the right search band
Positioned in the $650,000–$675,000 search band where most single-story buyers in Headwaters are shopping
The disciplined path to a higher number. A correctly priced, well-presented home creates its own leverage. If the first ten days produce multiple showings and more than one serious buyer, competition — not the list price — carries the sale toward the top of the range. We protect that position by not negotiating early and letting the first weekend's activity set the tone.
Pre-List Make-Ready
Sequenced to put this home in the top 25% on presentation — and to stand up to a freshly finished model home. Foreman Property Group coordinates every service below.
Clean-Out
Declutter, remove personal items, clear the garage and flex room
Repairs & Lighting
Touch-up paint, caulk and grout refresh, any fixture or bulb corrections
Exterior Make-Ready
Flatwork cleaning; soft-wash treatment of siding, brick, fencing; windows cleaned inside and out with screens removed; landscape refresh with fresh mulch, trimmed beds, and covered outdoor living prepared to face the preserve
Professional Staging
Full staging of the main living areas, owner's suite, study and flex room, plus the covered outdoor living so the greenbelt reads as an extension of the home
Photography
Only after staging is complete
We will walk the home together to finalize the punch list and confirm timing.
Marketing & Concierge Plan
Photography & Aerial Imagery
Professional photography and aerial imagery that shows the preserve behind the home and its relationship to the open space
Cinematic Video & Floor Plan
Cinematic video and a measured floor plan highlighting the single-level flow, the study and the flex room
The Selections Ledger
A buyer-facing summary of the $146,693 in documented options and the greenbelt homesite, so every buyer understands what they would pay to replicate this home new
Model-Home Buyer Targeting
Digital campaigns aimed at buyers touring new construction in Headwaters and western Hays County, built around one message: the finishes of a new home, a greenbelt homesite, and no construction timeline — for more than $120,000 less
Agent Outreach
Outreach to every agent who has represented a Headwaters buyer in the last 12 months
Weekly Reporting
Showings, feedback and online activity, with our read on what it means. Plus launch weekend open houses and a broker preview.
The First 30 Days
Launching in October gives us a full selling window ahead of the holiday slowdown.
What a Sale Means for the Buyer's Numbers
A buyer's property taxes reset to the purchase price. At the 2025 combined rate of 2.5353%:
Plus HOA of $138/month, which includes Spectrum internet.
The Buyer's Case Writes Itself
At $659,000, a buyer saves more than $120,000 in purchase price and roughly $3,000 a year in property taxes versus the new single-story alternative — and moves into a finished home with a mature greenbelt setting and no construction timeline.
Next Steps
Confirm your pricing tier
We recommend $659,000
Walk-through together
Finalize the make-ready punch list
Schedule make-ready services, staging and photography
For an October launch
Review the net sheet
At your confirmed price
Sign listing documents
And set the launch date
We are grateful to represent this home a second time, and we look forward to it.
Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury
512-866-6165 · team@foremanpropertygroup.com
657 Moonlit Stream Pass